After raising interest rate by a cumulative 250 basis points in 11 months, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday unexpectedly kept benchmark rate unchanged as global banking woes added uncertainty to the economic outlook. Five out of six members of MPC voted to remain focused on the withdrawal of accommodation to ensure inflation aligns with target while focusing on growth, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Thursday. The Monetary Policy Committee of the central bank decided to take a pause after a rate hike seen in previous six consecutive policies.
Even as the high inflation figure for October has ruled out any possibility of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) monetary policy committee (MPC) in December, a rate cut in February also looks uncertain due to global uncertainties. Economists told Business Standard that unless domestic growth slows markedly, the outlook on rate cut remains unclear. India's headline inflation touched a 14-month high of 6.2 per cent in October, breaching the MPC's upper tolerance band of 6 per cent.
Despite steady loan growth, the banking sector is expected to report subdued margins in the quarter ending June 2024 (Q1FY25), driven by high demand for deposits amidst tight liquidity conditions. However, according to Bloomberg analysts, listed banks are forecasted to see a 14.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) increase in net profit. Estimates showed that banks' net interest income (NII), and revenues from interest minus interest expenses might grow 11.9 per cent Y-o-Y.
'We found certain banks having lakhs of such accounts with apparently no valid reason.'
Perhaps because the Modi government had some differences of opinion with two of the economist governors (one of whom was appointed by the Manmohan Singh government), there is a view that its political leadership prefers a civil servant to head the RBI, notes A K Bhattacharya.
The RBI on Friday said the impact of coronavirus outbreak on the economy will depend on the intensity, spread and duration of the deadly virus even as the central bank refrained from projecting any numbers for growth and inflation amid the widespread uncertainty. While announcing the seventh bi-monthly monetary policy statement for 2019-20, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that in view of the impact of coronavirus pandemic, the growth projections for 4.7 per cent for the fourth quarter of 2019-20 and 5 per cent for the full fiscal are "now at risk".
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) caution on inflation, highlighted during the recent monetary policy meeting, may put investors' faith in fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) stocks to test, analysts said. They, however, believe FMCG stocks may ride through this near-term investor anxiety as related companies are, typically, well-equipped to handle inflation due to their pricing power and steady demand for essential goods.
Uncertainty is emerging as the only certainty, said RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das as he emphasised on continued policy support at the December MPC meet during which members expressed concerns over spread of the Omicron variant of coronavirus, as per the minutes of the rate-setting panel released on Wednesday. After three days of deliberations, the six members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on December 8 unanimously voted for status quo on policy rates for the ninth consecutive time. At the meeting, the RBI Governor said risks stalking the global economy have amplified with rapid spread of the virus mutations, including the Omicron variant, leading to countries scrambling for restrictions.
The three day MPC meeting began on Monday and the decision will be announced on Wednesday by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das.
The overarching talking point will be the reluctance on the part of private banks to loosen their purse strings and increase lending substantially, even as the central bank believes there is adequate liquidity within the system.
Today, the economy requires a certain amount of push not just from the monetary policy but also from its transmission: Das.
The National Payments Corporation of India on Thursday granted approval to Paytm-owner One97 Communications Ltd to participate in UPI as a Third-Party Application Provider (TPAP) under the multi-bank model. Axis Bank, HDFC Bank, State Bank of India, and YES Bank will act as Payment System Provider (PSP) banks to Paytm.
There are 350,000 jewellers, of which 13,000 are BIS-certified.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday said the rupee is holding up relatively well when compared to the currencies of emerging market peers and advanced economies. Days after the domestic currency breached the 80-level against the dollar, Das said Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has zero tolerance for volatile and bumpy movement in the rupee and added that the central bank actions have helped in smoother movement. He said RBI has been supplying US dollars to the market to ensure adequate supply of liquidity and also clarified that the central bank does not target a particular level for the currency.
'Whether I am optimistic or pessimistic is not the issue; I am just going by the evidence available.' 'The Indian economy and financial sector are now well-placed and very resilient in dealing with any kind of spillover coming from the external world.'
Softening inflation, Das said would make available more policy space to the central bank to address risks to the growth going forward.
India's current account deficit (CAD) may dip further in the March quarter of FY24 as pressure from the negative net exports during the January-March period eased to an 11-quarter high. A part of the gross domestic product (GDP) data, net export- which is usually negative for India - captures the difference between exports and imports of both goods and services, while the CAD data, released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), also factors in private transfer receipts.
The Directorate of Enforcement (ED) has launched a preliminary investigation or a pre-open inquiry into alleged violations related to the Foreign Exchange Management Act (Fema) in the Paytm Payments Bank case, according to sources in the know. The probe follows serious concerns raised by the Reserve Bank of India on multiple violations by the Paytm bank, which is a joint venture between One97 Communications, which is the parent company of Paytm, and the group's founder Vijay Shekhar Sharma.
The uncertainty created by the jump in COVID-19 infections and localised lockdowns prompted RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das and other members of the rating setting panel MPC to unanimously vote for status quo in interest rates and an accommodative policy stance to support growth, as per minutes of the meeting released on Thursday. "The need of the hour is to effectively secure the economic recovery underway so that it becomes broad-based and durable," the Governor said during the three-day meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) which ended on April 7. The renewed jump in COVID-19 infections in several parts of the country and the associated localised and regional lockdowns add uncertainty to the growth outlook, he observed, as per the minutes of the meeting released by the central bank.
As the RBI moves ahead for the launch of the central bank digital currency (CBDC), Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday marked out cyber security and digital frauds as the main challenges in the new system. Deputy Governor T Rabi Sankar said there are two types of CBDCs - wholesale and retail - and a lot of work has happened in the former while the latter was termed as a "complicated" aspect which will take time. The RBI had earlier this year announced that it has started work on the CBDC, in line with other major central banks of the world which are looking at a fiat digital currency.
The challenge for the RBI in 2024 is likely to be less about containing elevated inflation and more about curbing excessive financial market exuberance and a 'problem of plenty', notes Sajjid Chinoy, Chief India Economist JP Morgan.
Among the Sensex firms, ITC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank, Nestle, Axis Bank, IndusInd Bank, UltraTech Cement, Bajaj Finance, Maruti and HDFC Bank were the major laggards.
UCO Bank, Bank of Maharashtra, Bank of India, Indian Overseas Bank, Indian Bank, and Central Bank of India don't have a non-executive chairman.
The repo rate has been left unchanged at 4 per cent, Governor Shaktikanta Das said while announcing the decisions taken by the central bank's MPC.
Though the economy has steadily gained momentum and remained resilient since the second quarter of the current fiscal, the Omicron variant of coronavirus remains the major challenge along with rising inflation pressures, says the Reserve Bank in its second financial stability report. In the foreword to the report released on Wednesday, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das notes that after the destructive second wave in April-May 2021, the growth outlook has progressively improved, though there are headwinds from global developments and more recently from the Omicron virus. A stronger and sustainable recovery hinges on the revival of private investment and shoring up private consumption, which unfortunately still remain below their pre-pandemic levels, he notes.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday upped inflation projection for the current fiscal to 6.7 per cent from 5.7 per cent forecast in April. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the upside risk to inflation persists and the recent spike in tomato prices would fuel food inflation. Also, high global crude oil prices would add to the upside pressure on inflation. The upward revision in inflation projection comes as domestic retail inflation has remained above RBI's comfort level of 6 per cent for four months in a row, mainly due to the Russia-Ukraine war which has impacted the prices of commodities across the globe.
The MPC headed by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will announce the resolution of the meeting at around noon on Thursday.
The services sector growth in India fell to a one-year low in November on softer expansions in new work intakes and output, despite receding price pressures, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services Business Activity Index fell from 58.4 in October to a one-year low of 56.9 in November. Despite witnessing a month-on-month decline, the rate of expansion was stronger than its long-run average.
In order to further enhance customer convenience, and to leverage the 24x7 availability of real-time gross settlement (RTGS), NACH which is currently available on bank working days, is proposed to be made available on all days of the week effective from August 1, 2021, RBI's Shaktikanta Das said.
The Reserve Bank on Monday advised banks to provide shade from the sun and water to customers waiting to exchange or deposit Rs 2,000 notes. It can be noted that during the note ban in 2016, there were allegations of customers dying while waiting in queues to exchange bank notes. Following Friday's announcement of withdrawing Rs 2,000 notes -- the notes continue to be legal tender unlike demonetisation exercise -- there were concerns about customers facing inconvenience, especially given the summer being at its peak.
The Reserve Bank of India has postponed the meeting of its interest rate setting Monetary Policy Committee by a day to August 3 due to administrative exigencies. The RBI said the decision of the MPC will be known on August 5 as against the earlier schedule of August 4. "Due to administrative exigencies, it has been decided to reschedule the MPC meeting from August 2-4, 2022 to August 3-5, 2022," RBI said in a statement on Thursday.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das on Thursday said there is a need for coordinated action between the centre and state governments to reduce taxes on petrol and diesel prices. "There is a need for coordinated action between the centre and states because there are inherent taxes levied by both," the Governor said adding that calibrated reduction of taxes was important. He was speaking at an event organised by Bombay Chamber of Commerce.
Expressing his satisfaction over the government's move to slash fiscal deficit target, Das said it will help improve investment by the private sector as crowding out impact will be less.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday raised the retail inflation target for the current financial year to 5.7 per cent on the back of rising global prices amidst the ongoing geo-political tensions, even as it expected the prices of cereals and pulses to soften on prospects of good winter crop harvest. "Global food prices along with metal prices have hardened significantly. "Economy is grappling with a sharp rise in inflation... Inflation is now projected at 5.7 per cent in 2022-23 with Q1 at 6.3 per cent; Q2 at 5 per cent; Q3 at 5.4 per cent and Q4 at 5.1 per cent," RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said while unveiling the first monetary policy review for the current fiscal year.
Following are the highlights of the RBI's first monetary policy statement of 2022-23 unveiled by Governor Shaktikanta Das: Policy repo rate unchanged at 4%; marginal standing facility rate & bank rate too remain unchanged at 4.25%. Monetary stance to be accommodative with focus on withdrawal of accommodation to keep inflation within target. GDP growth projection for FY'23 slashed to 7.2% from 7.8%; growth projections based on assumption of crude oil (Indian basket) price at $100 a barrel during FY'23. Inflation forecast hiked to 5.7% for FY'23 from 4.5%.
The fourth consecutive rate cut is expected to lower equated monthly instalments (EMIs) for home and auto buyers, and borrowing cost for corporate.
The government has already crossed the fiscal deficit at 132 per cent of the estimate as of December end.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will maintain the policy repo rate at 6.5 per cent during its upcoming June 8 announcement, considering the easing of retail inflation in April and the potential for further decline, indicating the effectiveness of previous policy rate actions, anticipate experts. Headed by Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das, a meeting of the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled for June 6-8. The decision of the 43rd meeting of the MPC would be announced on Thursday, June 8.
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday retained its growth projection at 7.2 per cent for the current fiscal on the back of improvement in urban demand and gradual recovery in rural India. Unveiling the third monetary policy for the current fiscal, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Indian economy remained resilient, and the central bank will continue to support growth. The RBI expects growth in the first quarter of the current fiscal at 16.2 per cent, which will taper to 4 per cent by the fourth quarter.
The country's foreign exchange reserves declined by $7.541 billion to $572.712 billion in the week ended July 15 as the Reserve Bank continued to intervene in the market to curb the fall of the rupee. In the previous week ended July 8, the reserves shrunk by $8.06 billion to $580.25 billion, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data showed on Friday. On Friday, the rupee fell by 5 paise to close at 79.90 against the US dollar.
